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Not Owning Gold A Form Of Insanity?

Wednesday, 12 January 2011 01:56

Less often you see CNBC brings a guest analyst who is bullish on gold. They invited Peter Schiff (a gold bug) only to laugh at, not knowing his predictions were quite right (see the second video below). The network is mostly pro stock and if there is any talk about gold, it’s the bubble talk.

This recent interview with Robin Griffiths was aired in Europe. Robin is the Cazenove's technical strategist. In his view on gold he says "I think not owning gold is a form of insanity, it may even show unhealthy masochistic tendencies, which might need medical attention… Although it's been a top performer for each of the last ten years, it's still in a linear trend. Eventually it will go exponential and make more in the last little bit than the whole of the ten year trend."

Published in Gold Analysis

Mainstream Haters Deny Gold Its Fundamentals

Tuesday, 11 January 2011 03:30

Yesterday I came across a clip from one of the business channels. The discussion was about “king dollar” and Gold. (The king dollar probably gives it away). Anyway, one of the guests quipped, “I’m on record that Gold is a dumb trade. It is rising based on fear and confusion and when that subsides, the Gold trade ends.”

First of all, Gold has been rising for ten years. It went down the twenty years prior. It is now in a structural bull market. This fact cannot be debated. There is no Gold “trade” unless you are trying to make a few points next week or month. It is a bull market. Repeatedly, the mainstream news makes this mistake. Moreover, find me a Gold bear that readily admits Gold is in a bull market. You can’t because every bear refers to Gold as a trade, as if its advance is an extended aberration that needs correcting or is unsustainable.

Published in Gold Analysis

Wall Street has been calling gold a bubble since 2005 when it hit $500. Some media naysayers remained negative even as they wrote the headlines proclaiming record highs and saw gold rise almost 30 percent in the past 12 months.

Interestingly, despite gold’s latest run, it was still a laggard compared to many other commodities. In the commodity world, gold didn’t even place in the top half in 2010. Against a basket of 14 commodities that includes everything from aluminum to wheat, gold’s 29.52 percent return places it eighth. Palladium took the top spot with a 96.6 percent return, followed by silver with an 83.21 percent return. Natural gas continued its cellar-dwelling ways, dropping 21.28 percent to become the worst-performing commodity of the basket.

Published in Gold Analysis

Why Gold Still Has a Long Way to Run

Thursday, 06 January 2011 03:27

The supply of paper currencies is infinite; the supply of gold is finite. This striking contrast provides an excellent reason to exchange the former for the latter. The gold supply is limited…very limited. According to one estimate, all the above-ground gold in the world totals between 120,000 and 140,000 metric tons. Let’s split the difference and call it 130,000 metric tons (about 4.2 billion troy ounces).

Published in Gold Analysis

Heading into 2011, the consensus outlook on precious metals is slightly positive but the consensus believes that higher interest rates will ultimately support the US currency and in turn engender a move out of Gold (NYSE:GLD). The Gold naysayers are using “rising rates” as a way to dismiss Gold. Let me explain why this belief is not only false but utterly dangerous.

Published in Gold Analysis

As we embark on 2011, gold continues to climb and investors are questioning its future price direction. Is gold in a bubble? Have the price gains of the last decade - which beat out stocks, bonds and several other favored asset classes - peaked? Did today's investors miss the opportunity to buy?

Published in Gold Analysis

Paul M. Frank is the president of Aviemore Asset Management, LLC, and the portfolio manager of the ETF Market Opportunity Fund (ETFOX), which has earned five stars from Morningstar for three-year, five-year and overall performance. ETFOX currently has nearly $75 million in assets under management.

Published in Gold Analysis

Monday morning I was greeted via my inbox with a Bloomberg report on Gold. Bloomberg has a series called “The Dark Side of Gold.” Its important to note this isn’t the first time the news organization has attempted a hit-piece on Gold. I wrote about this exactly one year ago and identified the cases and examples of Bloomberg’s gold bashing.

Published in Gold Analysis

A couple observations:

  • Gold is increasingly being recognized as an investment. Watch for sentiment to get to extreme levels before calling a top. We may be nearing this point, but there's still room for upside as long as central banks continue to debase their currencies.
  • Japanese equities, US Treasuries and corporate bonds are three hated investments. The contrarian in me wants to investigate further.
Published in Gold Analysis

Jim Roger Expects a $2,000 Gold

Tuesday, 21 December 2010 02:12

Even as gold prices are showing signs of a continued bull run, some experts are feeling that the yellow metal is yet to reach its real value. According to world renowned investor Jim Rogers, gold prices should be around $2000 in this decade.

Published in Gold Analysis
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