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Gold Forecast

Gold Price Forecast

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Gold Trade

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Short Term Trend

Price Trend Score Definition
1 – 3 Downward gold price trend
4 – 6 Gold is trading sideways or the previous trend is reversing
7 – 9 Upward gold price trend

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Gold Forecast 2013

We evaluate gold market fundamentally and technically to predict where the prices will be short- and long- term. Global macroeconomics and currencies play an important role in direction of the trends. Short term forecasts are covered in this page.

In our technical analysis we take advantage of trend analysis. Trend analysis is a proven and an important aspect of technical analysis that looks for an ongoing upward or downward pattern that could lead to forecasting gold prices. Trend is your friend! In this strategy an investor stays long with an upward price trend until the trend is reversed. Therefore, this strategy can provide returns regardless of the market direction.

You can find articles on this site that discuss investing in gold stocks based on different trading strategies and risk tolerance.

Information on this page is updated regularly. Make sure to sign up for the newsletter if you like to be notified of major events and trade opportunities of this market. It's on the right hand sidebar.

Gold Price Forecast Target US$/ounce Hit Price US$/ounce
2010 1,500 1,421
2011 1,750 raised to 1,950 1,895
2012 1,850 1,792
2013 1,900  

Short Term Gold Forecast

Global Panic and Revised Gold Price Forecasts

August 10, 2011 Update

In our last update we mentioned that foundation for higher gold is solid but we could not predict that within a short period of time gold prices hit our 2011 target prices of $1,750 an ounce. The yellow metal, on a steep uptrend, reached $1,800 today, more precious than Platinum. This prompts us to raise the target price for this year to $1,950 an ounce. As global uncertainty is increasing and Asian gold buying season is just around the corner, we are heading toward $2,000 gold and profit taking will kick in before hitting that level.

In the gold price chart below we have marked the important events in U.S. supporting gold prices. These include raising the debt limit, credit rating downgrade, and latest Fed decision to “only” keep the rates low to at least mid 2013, keeping the QE3 card in his pocket for later down the road. Fed mentioned U.S. economy is contracting which translates to more quantitative easing. But for now Bernanke left it to politicians to fix the mess they created playing their political games.

Keep in mind that the steep price increase translates to higher chance of correction. Gold prices are trending up and using the blue price line as support.

gold forecast chart Aug 10 2011

(Click to enlarge)

In the past few days investment banks revised their gold price forecast. Bloomberg survey of the four most accurate precious metal forecasters points to $1,938 Gold in 2012.

HSBC raised its average price to $1,590/oz for 2011 and $1,625/oz for 2012. They need to revise one more time.

Goldman Sachs raised the 12-month forecasts to $1,860/oz.

Commerzbank raised the price forecast for 2011 and early 2012 to $1,800/oz. Already there!

JP Morgan raised its forecast of gold price to $2,500/oz for 2011

Current gold prices

$1,600 Gold Target

July 13, 2011 Update

Since the last update, gold prices dipped lower to $1,480 an ounce support level as greenback found some support and Greece found some temporary relief to its unavoidable default. The short-lived dip brought an opportunity to go long on gold as recommended on the gold trade section.

Rising concerns on the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis are supporting gold prices. Portugal took a big blow as Moody’s downgraded its debt rating to junk, and as expected, Ireland was targeted next and then Italy. Italy will be the most important battleground for euro in our opinion. We’ve just started hearing more on the serious issues the country is facing. Expect gold prices to rise as more investors pay attention to the news and seek safe-haven.

The latest job report tells us that the question is not Will there be QE3? But how many quantitative easing we are going to see before the system breaks down? Another QE round is unavoidable but each time Fed eases money, the action will have less effect on the economy and will send gold higher and higher. Following the dismal job report, Bernanke hinted QE3 and said that Fed is examining ways to stimulate growth if the economy weakens. The hint came much sooner than we thought and underlines the deep trouble our economy is facing. Such monetary easing will be highly bullish for gold and gold stocks. We forecast a $1600 gold soon and see gold stocks rise rapidly.

Is $1,600 gold too high for investment demand? It will be a new record high for the metal but if you adjust it for inflation the price will still be lower that the Jan. 1980 high.

Gold market is becoming very volatile and new information can lead to rapid price changes. Make sure to sign up for our free newsletter on the right sidebar and check out the latest happenings in the gold market.

gold forecast chart

(Click to enlarge)