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Is a Slow Economic Forecast Bullish for Gold Prices?

Written by  seekinGold Tuesday, 20 December 2011 21:16

Copper prices are a good indication of economic growth. A lot of analysts use the term Dr. Copper when analyzing and forecasting health of the economy. The price of copper is sitting just above $3 per pound and there are a few indications that prices could break below this level signaling an economic slowdown in 2012. Gold prices usually rise with rise of the economic uncertainty.

Bank of America Merrril Lynch lowered its forecast of copper prices from $3.99/lb in 2011 to $3.99/lb in 2011. "Nevertheless, our average price target implies some upside from current levels, which could emanate from policy makers in Europe starting to tackle the core of the region's problems, and increased Chinese imports, which could rise by 6% year on year. In addition, mine supply will, in all likelihood, remain relatively tight, which should prevent a meltdown on the copper market," says the report on Dec 16.

"Going forward, we believe that supply problems will remain a constituent part of the copper market, which is one reason why we factor in a 6% or 1.1 million [metric ton] disruption allowance to mine production next year, a critical driver of our forecast that the copper market will be in deficit."

The US banking major added: "Nevertheless, it is worth noting that we have marginally more copper mine supply emerging through next year and in 2013, which would suggest an easing of the concentrates and potentially the refined market then. This could also be accompanied by somewhat higher treatment charges."

On the demand side, metal demand in China is expected to grow at a slower pace in 2012 and metal prices are predicted to be lower than this year. This will put further pressure on the already depressed commodity prices. "It is unlikely to see metals demand to grow at more than 10 percent next year," given the macroeconomic environment, said Wang, deputy secretary-general of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association.

On the supply side, a recent mining take over is signaling a bearish forecast on metal prices as well. KGHM announced earlier this month its intent to acquire Vancouver, British Columbia-based producer Quadra for about Canadian $15 ($14.49) per share, valuing the deal at an estimated C$3.5 billion ($3.38 billion). Although the offer is well above company stock price of $11.35, analysts called it a "lowball" offer meaning the offer was too cheap. Mining stocks have been depressed this year and the premium in the bid does not reflect the true value of this mining company. Threfore, the decision might indicate that the company's management is pessimistic about copper demand and prices.

Following graph compares the price of copper to gold. As mentioned earlier, at times of uncertainty gold prices tend to rise when copper prices fall ahead of an economy slow down.

copper vs gold prices

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