"Going forward, we believe that supply problems will remain a constituent part of the copper market, which is one reason why we factor in a 6% or 1.1 million [metric ton] disruption allowance to mine production next year, a critical driver of our forecast that the copper market will be in deficit."
The US banking major added: "Nevertheless, it is worth noting that we have marginally more copper mine supply emerging through next year and in 2013, which would suggest an easing of the concentrates and potentially the refined market then. This could also be accompanied by somewhat higher treatment charges."
On the demand side, metal demand in China is expected to grow at a slower pace in 2012 and metal prices are predicted to be lower than this year. This will put further pressure on the already depressed commodity prices. "It is unlikely to see metals demand to grow at more than 10 percent next year," given the macroeconomic environment, said Wang, deputy secretary-general of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association.
On the supply side, a recent mining take over is signaling a bearish forecast on metal prices as well. KGHM announced earlier this month its intent to acquire Vancouver, British Columbia-based producer Quadra for about Canadian $15 ($14.49) per share, valuing the deal at an estimated C$3.5 billion ($3.38 billion). Although the offer is well above company stock price of $11.35, analysts called it a "lowball" offer meaning the offer was too cheap. Mining stocks have been depressed this year and the premium in the bid does not reflect the true value of this mining company. Threfore, the decision might indicate that the company's management is pessimistic about copper demand and prices.
Following graph compares the price of copper to gold. As mentioned earlier, at times of uncertainty gold prices tend to rise when copper prices fall ahead of an economy slow down.









