Top Gold Market Analysis

Best of the gold market analysis: Our own, the ones we find interesting, from gurus like Jim Rogers or Marc Faber, and the ones we follow their work closely, like Wall St. Cheat Sheet. Missing an important piece here? Let us know and we'll include it.

The second resolution for your 2013 (assuming joining a gym or a fat loss program to be the No.1 !!) can be preserving your wealth or in other words, just not lose money.

That can be hard with the sort of economic environment we have ahead of us in 2013. Some like Marc Faber will focus on the preserving what he has gained in the past three years and will reduce his expectation on the return on his investments:

Copper prices are a good indication of economic growth. A lot of analysts use the term Dr. Copper when analyzing and forecasting health of the economy. The price of copper is sitting just above $3 per pound and there are a few indications that prices could break below this level signaling an economic slowdown in 2012. Gold prices usually rise with rise of the economic uncertainty.

Bank of America Merrril Lynch lowered its forecast of copper prices from $3.99/lb in 2011 to $3.99/lb in 2011. "Nevertheless, our average price target implies some upside from current levels, which could emanate from policy makers in Europe starting to tackle the core of the region's problems, and increased Chinese imports, which could rise by 6% year on year. In addition, mine supply will, in all likelihood, remain relatively tight, which should prevent a meltdown on the copper market," says the report on Dec 16.

jim rogers forecasts goldUnlike pessimistic view of some analysts like Gartman, Jim Rogers believes this gold correction is an excellent opportunity to buy in. He acknowledges the steep 11 year gold bull market brings a high chance of a big correction and likes to see prices correct for a healthy uptrend. Not discouraged by the fear on the street, he said he would get "extremely excited" if gold prices drop to $1,200 per ounce.

"I own gold and I'm not selling my gold … Somewhere down the line gold will have a correction. Gold will continue to do what gold does best. Just give it a chance.", said Rogers.

dennis gartman

Dennis Gartman of Gartman Letter forecasts gold 11 year fiery run is over and a bear market is already in place. The pessimistic view comes as gold prices in mid-term analysis have lower highs and to confirm the downtrend prices need to go below the previous lows. This is in fact the definition of a downtrend and he predicts the trend will continue . "We have the beginnings of a real bear market, and the death of a bull.", says Gartman who correctly predicted the slump in commodities in 2008.

He sold all of his gold in expectation that gold prices would drop more than 20 percent, the common definition of a bear market.

Gold prices are sitting on $1,650 an ounce support line and if prices manage to hold on to this level they can trend up toward $2,000 an ounce for 2012. The key level is the Sept. 26 low at $1,594. If this level is broken we are looking at a correction in gold prices toward $1,450 an ounce.

Bullion prices are under selling pressure as a failed German bond auction sent investors toward the safety of US dollars. This bearish move pressed gold mining stocks lower. Rangold and Agnico Eagle Mines lost about 10% during the week. Sometimes gold stocks are leading indicators for gold spot prices which means gold prices could have a hard time fighting the sell off pressure.

Gold prices dipping below $1,700 an ounce due to market sell off can be a golden opportunity to buy gold coins and bullion, said Cramer in his Mad Money Show.

Solving the European economic crisis could mean “potentially crunching a minimum of $10 trillion in bank debt,” which would create a severe deflationary climate. “Almost everything will be worth less, and you can see the value of property declining immensely in Europe,” he said. “In that scenario, everybody’s saying, ‘No inflation? You’ve got to sell your gold... That’s why I think gold’s current direction will turn out to be wrong.”

In the last few weeks a slow slide in commodity prices – metals in particular – has turned into a full-scale nosedive.

All through 2011 copper had remained essentially between US$4 and $4.50 a pound, but on September 11 it dropped below that range and didn’t really stop falling until October 4, when it bottomed at $3.05. Aluminum gained ground in the first half of the year to reach $1.24 per lb. in April, but after losing 10% in the last 30 days it is back below that, at $0.96. The spot price of nickel lost 19% in the last month; zinc prices fell 17%. Precious metals were not spared either: The price of silver shed a whopping 33% in 30 days, while gold is currently down 15% compared to its price on September 6.

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